International Journal of Supply and Operations Management

International Journal of Supply and Operations Management

Econometric Screening and Robust MCDM for Regional Small-Business Support Decisions: Evidence from Uzbekistan

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Abdusalim Shavkatov
Ildar Azizov
Graduate School of Business and Entrepreneurship under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan
10.22034/ijsom.2026.137797.3642
Abstract
Objective: This study develops an empirically screened decision-support framework for regional small-business support. It asks how econometric evidence can restrict the admissible criterion set without turning conditional associations into policy preferences, and whether regional need priorities remain stable under alternative modelling choices.
Methods: Two-way fixed-effects models are estimated for 14 regions of Uzbekistan: real net-sales intensity for 2013–2022 (N=140) and small-business exports for 2013–2024 (N=168), with 9,999-repetition wild cluster bootstrap-t inference. Capital intensity shortfall, overdue-payables burden and graduate-flow shortfall form a need matrix under explicit policy-orientation assumptions; small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) employment is reported separately as implementation scale. Robustness covers 54 structural specifications, all criterion subsets, opposing net-entry interpretations, rolling three-year windows and Dirichlet weight perturbations.
Results: Capital intensity (β=0.2249; wild p=0.0016), overdue-payables pressure (β=−0.0675; p=0.0376), graduate-flow intensity (β=0.9704; p=0.0108) and SME employment scale (β=2.6171; p=0.0246) pass the primary screen. Under two-way region–year clustering, only overdue payables weakens (p=0.071) and is treated as a provisional need signal. Andijan, Kashkadarya and Fergana rank highest; Andijan ranks first in all 54 structural variants, and the top-three set is preserved in 53. Under unrestricted weight uncertainty, top-three probabilities are 0.993 for Andijan, 0.795 for Fergana and 0.734 for Kashkadarya. Rolling windows show substantial temporal variation.
Conclusion: The framework supports auditable regional need prioritization, not welfare-optimal funding shares or causal treatment claims. Econometric relevance, policy orientation, information weighting and implementation scale should be kept analytically distinct and updated as the data window changes.
Keywords
multi-criteria decision making
regional decision support
small business
econometric screening
sensitivity analysis
Subjects
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International Journal of Supply and Operations Management

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 05 November 2026